Understanding and Dealing with Trump…

This piece is being published with the consent of the presenter eureka-perspectives.com.

March 7, 2025

To Understand Trump You have to take him apart and look at the pieces.

First we will look at him personally.

At the Core it is evident that Evil and Bullying are central drivers. Empathy is non-existent. Deranged may be a fitting overall description.

In terms of an operational setup he prefers chaos. No doubt his mentor Roy Cohn planted the seed.        

As to a management style, he prefers the autocratic authoritarian approach where he is always in charge. 

While he talks a lot about improving government efficiency and cutting the deficit, his goal of reducing taxes on the wealthy and corporations prove that a lie.  

His most significant attribute is as a polished snake oil salesman. His wares are most desired by people of wealth and people who dream of wealth and most of the verbiage is lies.

His anger at the American people in general, the fact that the government charged him with inciting crimes, is central to what is really a retribution tour against America.

His beliefs and goals in Presidency 2.0 include the following, obviously not a total listing:

1.     He truly believes that he will be one of the Great Presidents.

2.     He believes that tariffs can generate revenue that would cover a tax cut for the wealthy.

3.     He believes that the US has continued its monetary sponsorship of the world for far too long, some 80 years after the end of WWII.

4.     He believes that military spending to protect the World has been one of the biggest drivers of the Government Deficit.

5.     He believes too much government money is directed to ill and poor citizens through Medicaid.

6.     He believes in animal spirits and the effect that they can provide towards providing the energy for economic growth. His support of the crypto scene and the excitement and speculation that it will generate is deep and follows in the animal spirit vein.

7.     He believes that the growth that the economy has seen since the 2008 crash has been low quality government financed growth.

8.     He likes to say that he will balance the Federal Budget through a combination of government cuts and economic growth.

          Here are some Facts and History that provide a platform on which Trump plans will play. These are from a more current time than the McKinley period that Trump wants to embrace.

1.    First, Trump never speaks of the Postwar Era, the term used to describe the period between 1945 and 1970, a period of strong growth following the war and before Oil inflation rose its head in the 1970’s. It was marked by political events such as the Cold War, the Civil Rights movement, and the Vietnam War. Maybe the most important headline from that period is, those were the years where the US paid down the War debt (where debt to GDP ratios started out at levels near the area of the current ratio). The people and the economy accomplished this task through strong growth in a wide range of areas including infrastructure and personal. This was accompanied by prudent financial policies that included a top income tax ratio in the 70 to 80 percent range.

2.    The next step that Trump totally ignores is the damage that the Supply Side /Trickle Down economic policies that Reagan put in place as an idea in the early 1980’s have done in terms government finances. These programs did not pay for themselves and actually added to government debt along with creating more economic inequality.  Ironically these programs were generated on a napkin as some infamous economists tried to figure out why the bloom came off the rose following the 25 year “Postwar Period”. Additionally, these programs are the core factors that have led to the blue collar anger that propels the current political scene.

3.    If we stay focused on economic history we see that President Clinton along with his esteemed Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin actually balanced the budget during his 1990 to 1998 term. How did they do that, not by cutting taxes? Actually they balanced the Federal Budget through a combination of tax increases, spending cuts, and economic growth. The equation that works then has not changed.

4.    Tariffs for Trump are a two sided coin, on the one hand he talks about them as a government revenue source (really a consumer tax) and on the other hand as a tool for leverage to get other nations to do what he wants them to do. In either case prudent economics does not paint a favorable picture.

5.    One area where prudent economists would agree with Trump, is the low quality growth that was generated by Republican appointed Fed Reserve Chair Bernanke. The QE, cheap money’ policies that were started in 2011 and basically continued into 2021 are a eleven year legacy problem that still has not been totally unraveled. A lot of that cheap money financed overbuilt real estate projects and private equity adventures. Trump was a participant in borrowing a significant amount of that cheap money.

6.    Inflation is a topic that everyone wants to demonize. The fact is, monopolization is a big factor in inflation, big companies have the ability to figure out who they can charge more, and AI makes that easier. Trumps policies’ tend to move investment money to the largest corporations and encourage that thread.

7.     Moving forward to another topic in the total equation, one that Trump not only ignores but totally disses, Climate Change. Much of the government investment that the Biden administration pushed in partnership with others was in what I would call the Climate Tech area, the combination of chips, EV’s, Solar, etc. The risks being taken on by the Trump administration by not continuing investment in this area, in terms of money, the lives and health of the populace, are real.

Here is where we take a look at the equation that combines Trump’s underlying personal issues with his 2.0 goals and then insert the realities outlined above. From this equation we can make an attempt to see what may be tried, what has a chance of working, and what will be the eventual fallout.  We take a look at where pitfalls may appear in the reasoning. Some big questions would seem to appear, 1) can the US economy weather all this?; 2) Can regular people survive from a health and nutrition standpoint?; 3) Can the US maintain a major global presence on the one hand while on the other hand it slips into a form of semi-isolation on the world stage?

1.   First cutting the deficit is a laudable goal, Clinton and Rubin have shown how to do it, it is by raising taxes, cutting expenditures, and creating real growth.

2.  Cutting government waste is also a laudable goal, there no doubt are excesses in places, but cutting health care and health research are not options that the country can support.

3.  Social Security is an asset of the people who have worked. Everyone who has ever worked has had a percentage of their income paid into the Social Security Trust Fund which at this point totals around 2.8 trillion dollars. Old timers remember the “Lock Box” conversation during the Bush – Gore debate. The Money that Americans’ put into the Trust Fund, has been borrowed by the government and the trust fund has been given IOU’s. Interestingly the Trust Fund actually has regular income in the form of interest paid by the government toward the IOU’s. Naturally the interest is paid in the form of the IOU’s and when interest rates rise, IOU income rises. Due to the low birth/death rate the Trust Fund will be depleted in 2035 and unless something changes the payouts will be matched to inputs which will require around a 17 % cut in payout to retirees, not the end of Social Security as some would like say. Obviously more immigration would help that part of the equation immensely.

4. Illegal immigration has to be dealt with. It is a problem that should have been dealt with legislatively many years ago. It is a fact that the U.S. birth/death ratio means we need a substantial number of immigrants, and not just the highly skilled. Congress need to set the rules through legislation and get legal immigration back on track.

5. De-regulation can probably generate cost savings for corporations but at what cost to human health and safety. Who has presented the research for the benefits that the populace can review?

6. A pullback from the global scene should allow a large cut in the military budget, maybe even enough that along with a tax increase on the upper levels can balance the budget.

7. Tariffs are not a proven instrument to cut deficits.

8. A big question, what does cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthy do to enhance the lives of average American? We know Trickle Down does not work.

9. And lastly, it is a well-known fact that everyone sees with their own eyes the increasing devastation caused by climate change, the fires, flooding, winds, rains, storms, etc.  The problem is everyone wants someone else to pay for the Climate Tech needed. Since no one want to step up and contribute funds to fix things the logical answer that would work to the common good would be to tax the effects that contribute to Climate Change.

10. The “Person of the Century” will be the person who can paint a clear picture of the Climate Change Challenge and bring together the forces to tackle it. The Baby Boomers never found that person although Jeremy Rifkin came close. The younger generations and non-Republicans have a wide open field to walk into.

To summarize, how does one stage one’s life to survive and grow during the time that Trump policies decimate our country. First, we know Trump is working with an unworkable equation. We live in a consumer economy where the consumer drives 70 percent of the economy. So it is important to monitor the numbers, number one is consumer sentiment, second is consumer incomes, third is GNP, gross national product. Monitoring Price data goes along with this, like, are we in an inflationary or deflationary economy? Also, the stock market is something to watch, it affects the fat cats more than the average person, but anyone building a retirement account is affected.

So, here are two equations to ponder the differences, 1) an unworkable equation, the one Trump is expressing, of tariffs, and tax cuts for the wealthy do not equal a balanced budget and economic growth 2) a workable equation that history has confirmed, one that can produce strong growth and a balanced budget. Details are outlined throughout this presentation.