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Rethinking America  –                                                         2020 and the Future 

 

January 8, 2021    The much talked about disconnect.

Here is a quick take on the disconnect between the state of the country and the stock market.

To me the answer is real easy. No one believes the core message that Democrats have put forth.

  1. No one believes that the Democrats are going to change anything other than spend more money. This after we have seen the Republicans run up huge deficits, papering over their failures by using taxpayer money to save votes. A good example; the tariff failure and the billions given to farmers to make up the difference.
  2. No one believes that in the first 100 days that anything is going to be done about the core Inequality issue.
  3. No one believes that in the first 100 days that legislation is going to be passed to raise corporate and capital gains taxes as a first step to Fiscal sanity.
  4. No one believes that in the first 100 days legislation is going to be presented to break up monopolies.
  5. No one believes that in the first 100 days the Treasury Department will curtail support for zombie company bond financing.
  6. No one believes that Janet Yellen will really fight for financial balance.
  7. No one believes that stock buybacks will be curtailed until the FED stops buying bonds and starts selling down its bond portfolio.

 

January 3, 2021

A few thoughts this evening as we move into the Future, the hopefully wonderful world of 2021. 

The battle going forward will circle around the factors that have built and perpetuate the inequality that so many Americans feel.  Basically we live in a world that governments through their central banks have built.  The US is not the only country that is affected, but we were the first and are worst at this moment.

What has rolled out is that the top third of the population do not have to endure a market based economic cycle, they through their influence, have governments intervene and create a no-consequence artificial cycle.

The bottom two thirds of the population still have to live in a real consequence market based economic cycle.

And to top it all off, most politicians are part of the elite top third, and use their power to send crumbs down to the people involved in the real world whenever the top third have a hiccup.

Is it any wonder that the people are angry?

After the inauguration we will get moving on the 2022 Progressive Factor section.

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December 3 2020

We are adding a new section to this site today and will be building it over the coming months.

It is titled “The 2022 Progressive Factor” and can be entered through the home page.

In this section we will insert a number of articles that look at what Democrats, or maybe not Democrats, maybe a new party, will need to analyze in order to bring rural and blue collar workers interests into a new political direction for 2022. We see that Democrats had to put together a coalition package to beat Trump Republicans, they got it done, but not by the margins they expected or will need in 2022 elections.

Thanksgiving Day 2020

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day and in my years on this earth I don’t think I have ever seen such a gap between the haves and have nots and the public policy that is unwilling to address that gap. A substantial number of Americans are not going to have a festive holiday. Covid and unemployment are real.

The coming end to the Trump administration and the switch to a Biden Presidency will hopefully provide a quantum change in policy, a change that most Americans don’t perceive. Main Street will replace Wall Street. We all know that stock indexes don’t really provide a picture of the state of our country. Price / earnings multiples are in the stratosphere and the markets are still clinging to the old normal, and why would they not, that is what the bully pulpit is proclaiming. There has been no effort to redeploy workers to new areas that the New Normal will require.

Hopefully that redeployment will happen. It will be a shock to Wall Street as they will find dwindling support for their dreams, reality will set in for Main Street. This will not be an easy switch, too much is leveraged in the happy talk conversation, inventories and orders are bulging as the much hoped for return to the old normal are in place.

To be fair, Trump is not totally to blame, and Biden will not be the total cure, too many old ideas, lack of outside the boxers, old school elitist’s appear to be populating the new administration. But that probably had to happen to bridge the gap from the magnitude of the destruction of Main Street since the Supply Sider, Trickle Downers, got control in the early 1980’s. Trump was just the cherry on the top of that Wall Street ice cream sundae.

Enjoy your pumpkin pie tomorrow.

Election Day 2020

It is not about Trump.  Today we have added a blog post to our Digging Deeper-Politics Section that we think has some important insights.  See “It is Not About Trump”.

Update of September 26, 2020

The Supreme Court Moment

We hear much today about the replacement of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg with a conservative female justice and what that will mean.

Are those selection concerns real?

So I did a google search asking the question, “have Supreme Court picks always been based around cultural values rather than judicial expertise ?”

And I was surprised to get a lengthy set of abstracts on the issue, I know reading those helped me and maybe you also to see the bigger picture.

Politically we know the coming judicial nomination by Trump will have a short term effect on things. I think taking a deep breath and looking at how this unfolded will allow some perspective for the longer term.

Trump was voted in by a backlash against elites, whether measured by education, wealth, or scientific knowledge. That has not changed with his followers in 4 years as we go into an election in November.

What has changed is the overwhelming number of people who now understand this and will I believe install Democrats in the Whitehouse, and a majority of the Senate, and House.  This is the bigger long term picture.

So back to the judicial abstracts to get you up to speed.  Go to Supreme Court Selection in the Menu.

update of August 12, 2020

We have been watching and researching the landscape over the past three months.  Have not posted since early May.  COVID-19 has brought a lot of turmoil but the big picture has not changed that much. Climate Change and Health Care and how to deal with them in a pro-growth environment is still key. A sense of making ones Community central to your life is still paramount. As Raghuram Rajan points out at one point in his book, The Third Pillar, the central theme in a dysfunctional community is the inability of the community members to act together for their common good. How better to describe many of our Communities in the United States at this moment, whether it be our national community or our local communities. 

My hope is that Joe Biden can foster an administration that can get us back to working together.  In order to do that he will need a partner as VP has the desire to build a National community and I believe he has that done in choosing Kamala Harris who brings a lot of energy and and perspective.   I do also hope that he will choose Elizabeth Warren for a large role in the Administration.  She would bring a rich portfolio of forward thinking ideas to tackle the economic, climate, and health issues that the country faces.             

             Back in May we said the following: The hard part in any election is convincing voters that you really have something that you can make happen – and in this election we originally thought it was —

                                            Workable Big Ideas

But it turned out in the early primary races that the desire to take the low risk route to be sure and beat Trump took things towards one thing, 

                                            perceived electability

With that as the back drop we have just added a section March 5 Rethink.02. This section takes a second look at how the voters could have their low risk route and yet see the next Administration be truly one devoted to Big Ideas.

                                        Education is the first step.

In the early stages of the caucus and primary schedule a lot of attention was being focused on elect-ability, the fear that no Democrat can beat Trump. We would like to see this change for the rest of the primary season. Explained ISSUES should be the number one challenge. Especially issues explained in detail, like do the math for people, let them visualize the story.  Climate, Inequality and Healthcare are big words that need to be wrapped in reality.

In this website we have a Digging Deeper section where a number of researchers, authors, etc, do dig deeper than we have seen on the primary trail so far.

We also in the ReThinking section, try to put together some challenge/solution dialogue.

In the blog section we will post items of interest and invite you to post responses also.

           

 

         

 

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